Oct 28 2011

A Plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it………………

Glorious day in Suffolk; warmish and sunny with the wonderful colours of autumn on the trees. We do live in a very beautiful country. I am lucky living within spitting distance of Knettishall with its country park and walks and I enjoy the delights of the ascent of Hat Hill and the views along the Ickneild Way. It also gives me time to regurgitate in my myself what news there is and what the papers have said about all and sundry. Today I almost thought I had been turned into a pillar of salt at the summit of said hill when I suddenly perceived what exactly David Cameron and George Osborne’s Euro strategy could be. A plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it…..so cunning that I will now have to refer to one of them or the Plan as the Baldric strategy.

Could it be that from the ashes of the Merkel – Sarco deal and subsequent vanishing act by our two leaders, that a cunning long term strategy has emerged? Could it be that Geordie is positioning the UK to be one of the so called “second tier” EU members deliberately? Could he be counting on French and German hubris to hack off the British people so much that they will welcome his referendum in 3 years time? Could he, in fact, be looking at making the major issue for the next General Election, the repatriation of powers back to Westminster, thus getting all of UKIP and the BNP vote? A very useful ploy to take the mind off what will still be a foundering economy and replace it with rampant xenophobia and Brussels bashing. It would of course be risky. No way the Lib Dems could live with that one, so any deal, should it be necessary, would be a dead duck and, in fact, probably drive the sandalled ones into the arms of Labour even during the campaign. He could, however, claim that the Lib Dem Euro preoccupation had stopped growth and that the Tories needed to divest them selves of these damned Liberals to save the country. During the course of which, he could simply update the election ads – cross out Labour and blame the Lib Dems, thus saving a fortune in advertising and not having the likes of the unctuous enlisted scum like Pickles learn a new script (difficult I know).

When you get such a Damascene revelation it is overwhelming. Not for long; I realised that no such thoughts could ever materialise inside Baldric or Davey Boys heads. After almost 18 months they still have not got past blame Labour 101 when the world and its dog, (even some of the Daily Pail readers), recognises that Labour didn’t cause the world financial markets to melt down – more like the bright boys in the American sub prime sector and the supposed even brighter boys in the FSA and the Old Lady. Besides even if they did manage to get their heads around this, the implementation would likely be so dire it would be rumbled inside half a day by even the dimmest News International phone hacker. Still it was a pleasant feeling whilst it lasted as we sauntered down the sunlit slope of the hill – this government with a strategy – almost made me nostalgic for Gordon the Bear.

Oct 27 2011

Never mind the Euro feel the width

A painful week in Suffolk. My old friend the arthritis arrived with a bang (surprise surprise) and provoked a major attack of the grumps. Not as major as the one which washed over the serried ranks of the Tory and Unionist party at the mere mention of Europe. The Daily Pail featured a picture of Davy Boy’s greying tonsure on Monday and I have to say that it certainly did look like a self inflicted wound. Things must be bad around the shires for that amount of energy to be spent on a vote that wasn’t going to be binding, that the other two party’s were going to trash anyway and was doing very little for the Conservatives credibility amongst ordinary punters struggling to make ends meet. The most oft comment I heard was along the lines of “Daft! Millions on a referendum and we are cutting all sorts of services already” It might be politic if the Euro-sceptic Tory Grandees understand that their fixation with rolling back Europe is in danger of becoming yet another arrogant illustration of how to lie in the campaign and ignore the electorate afterwards.

DC might have weathered the storm except for the dithering over where he would be for the Heads of State meeting. His original travel plans got disrupted badly when it was discovered he was not going to attend. Then he was. Then, only attending a part of the meeting – he changed his mind more often than a reluctant virgin on a first date. But again the luck of the Cameron’s came to his rescue with the great drama of the deal in Brussels, with the Iron Madchen playing a hand that will be seen to be a classic in years to come. TV screens this morning filled with the Blessed Angela and the odious little dwarf Sarko sailing in such close concert they could have been mistaken for an Franco – German catamaran. And here lies the nub of today’s offering – where was DC? In the past, it was always either Blair or Brown with the little velvet Angel and Sarko, where were DC and Gorgeous George? Not centre stage that was certain. the argument could well be that it was Euro stuff so we didn’t need to be there but ” It is in Britain’s national interest to be influencing here” quoted Mr Osborne at the same time as the Tory rags are proclaiming his warning that we need to beware of a two tier Europe with Britain being relegated to the second tier. He is wrong, with the inability to manage to project any leadership presence at all Cameron and Osborne have singularly managed to ensure that closer fiscal union and cross border legislation will occur in our country sooner rather than later. The Euro -Zone will plod forward and move inexorably back into rude financial health with no huge Federal State of Europe ever even being discussed, at least not while there is breath in Chancellor Merkels body. Laura Keunsberg’s blog postulating the future shape of Europe as a council of creditors is likely to be nearer the truth than the scaremongering of UKIP and the Tory Euro – sceptics. It will never get smaller and we will never renegotiate the Treaty because it would be too economically destructive to mess with our biggest export market. And when the next Euro vote comes up in the House in the future, Davy Boy will be left to reflect that it is easier to influence and lead when you are engaged fully, like Mrs T, and not left outside waiting for a taxi to nowhere admiring his own reflection in a very small mirror.

Oct 21 2011

Payback

The rise of, the then styled, Colonel Gaddafi(he was only a signals officer, a Captain) in the deposing of King Idris of Libya in 1967 was uniquely swift by the standards of change in the Arab World in the wake of the 1967 Six Day War. His departure to whatever post life destination he has earned was equally as swift, and surprising. Few commentators had imagined that he would hide within the tribal heartland of Sirte. Nobody had envisaged him fighting to almost the last man and the last round in the manner of a true soldier and yet he did. Was this a last spasm of hubris or a realisation that all he had left was a legacy amongst his own that would best be served with him a martyr? Whatever the motives of this complex and deranged man, he met his end somewhere outside his home town yesterday morning. The inquest and speculation as to what exactly are the details of his death will fill the press and conspiracy theorists for many days and weeks. Already it is mooted that the body was one of his doubles and he is now safe in Niger with a fortune in gold coins – such are the fantasies that become half truths and then accepted wisdom once Hollywood manages to take the story on. The thing that must not be lost is that Muammar Gaddafi was a taker of lives on an industrial scale. He exported and financed terrorism across the world for almost 30 years. As Britain was the last colonial occupier of Libya and a stalwart ally of our cousins across the pond we have borne a major share of the Colonels wrath.

The tracing of his fingers in the pie of death range from the Libyan embassy siege where Yvonne Fletcher was callously murder by a member of the Embassy staff – probably a member of the Military Intelligence Force, the main arm of Libyan Intelligence. The resulting furore allowed Gadaffi to enhance his credentials with many terrorist organisations around the world and with the Soviet Bloc. Supply of Semtex from Sovbloc countries to organisations like ETA and PIRA further enhanced his reputation as a supplier of the gears of war to “freedom fighters” Gaddafi, however, strayed across the thin line in 86 when he was implicated in the death of American servicemen in Germany. The American response was swift and did massive damage to Gaddafi personally, his family and Tripoli but also to his reputation as an untouchable in the Middle East. His response to this was to strike at the lesser of the two protagonists in that attack – the UK. We had allowed our bases in UK to launch the F111’s; a major part of the strike package. For the next 3 years, Gaddafi proffered oil money around the Middle East in search of a means to strike at UK and US. His first attempt was in 1986 on a hot sunny Sunday afternoon in the British base of Akrotiri in Cyprus.

Immediately after the Gulf of Sirte incident and the subsequent American attack, Gaddafi offered £5 million to any group that could strike at Anglo US assets in the region. The deadly linkage between Libya and Syria now started to pan out as he was aided significantly in planning of his attack on Akrotiri by them. I was made aware of this as I sat in the command post of 48 Sqn RAF Regiment early one morning having tea and a bacon buttie after an all night patrol. The electric bullet men, tracked an inbound Syrian Airforce MIG 25 Foxbat recce overflight of the base. I listened as two Rapier Missile launchers locked on visually and with radar and asked over the direct line to CabinetOfficeBRA in London, if they were clear to fire, as their Rules of Engagement were fulfilled. I heard for the third morning running, the voice on the other en, a very senior politician, telling them to hold fire in calm tones, very much at adds with the single Anglo Saxon epithet spat by the detachment commander. This set the seeds of a partnership which, it has always been acknowledged, reached its fruition in the skies above Lockerbie three years later. Suffice to say in August of that year a cobbled together group of supposed Palestinian Fedayeen attacked Akrotiri using RPG’s mortars, grenades and small arms against families enjoying a warm Sunday by the sea. Three people were wounded and the terrorists returned to Damascus. A lot of friends and families were under those mortars as they landed. One of them, a gangling laddie of 14 was hosed by a “hero” with an AK47 from a range of less than 15 M. Almost 50 rounds were fired at him and luckily not a scratch but such was Gaddafi’s legacy. The Lockerbie atrocity came three years later and then, almost like a little child who knows when they have gone too far, the chameleon like face of Gaddafi turned again to embrace the West and civilisation – or so it would seem. Little is talked about his involvement in the Chad wars where he did his best to stop peace coming.

So there is a personal element to the sense of payback for me today. But of all the crimes he was responsible for we must not forget two things, his greatest crime was against the people of Libya of whom he butchered and tortured in their thousands for having the audacity to dream. That his end came violently, perhaps from close range through the forehead, is of no surprise or sorrow. The other major point never to forget is that we , in the west, allowed him to prosper, not just by doing nothing but by pursuing policies that impose our will on sovereign nations. Much of the chaos in the middle east over the last 30 years would never have occurred if the foreign policy of the US had recognised that leadership is not being the worlds policeman and imposing American solutions on nations that were the cradles of civilisation centuries before the first Spaniards set foot in the Americas. We must learn to collaborate and not dictate if we are to solve some of the most intractable security problems of the next decade plus.

Oct 20 2011

Maskirovka

Am I losing my marbles or becoming a totally grumpy old man? Has no-one else made any comments about the delayed undercover police report? All attention diverted because of the another guy – not in the terms of reference for the Kennedy case – giving a false name in court under oath thereby skewing the whole weight of evidence – I think not!!! This seems to be the latest in a series of new tactics which give the semblance of transparency whilst sticking solidly to delivering nothing of substance whatsoever or even postponing it for a better day for the sitting administration. The Russians are past masters at this stuff even having a military doctrine entitled maskirovka which means keep the patsy’s eyes fixed on the unimportant stuff whilst sneaking the important stuff through unseen

I have no doubt that the inquiry was conducted with integrity and depth and that great tomes will be written on the lessons learnt on police undercover operations. What I would question is whether or not the report will make any comment at all on the overall management and credibility of the police officers who managed this operation. 7 years this guy was undercover; 7 years of taxpayers money to pay him and his support team; 7 years of opportunity costs to pay for those people who did what he would have done in the active police force – this was a costly operation. The Telegraph estimates around £250000 per annum for just the first two – £1.75m over 7 years. They also intimate that there were another 15 officers in the same operation. The National Public Order Intelligence unit must have a fairly substantial budget to be able to deploy resources on such a scale. As a result the trial collapsed when he swapped sides. He, by the accounts of the red tops at the time, had a fairly enjoyable time not subject to police disciplines and all those irksome things we find so tiresome – like getting up for work in the morning. But, I ask you, 7 years infiltrating a climate change group, hardly the main caucus of Al-Qaeda GB was it?. How on earth did they, or he, manage to con the reviewers into maintaining the operation? Who made those decisions to carry on or was it just left to drift? Who scrutinises this lot; one would presume it is the Home Secretary? Has she sacked anybody because a disaster on this scale in military terms would certainly get someone their P45. probably not because that would cost money and in any case it would be easier to blame Labour for something else.

This is the main point of my diatribe this cold but frosty morning in the depths of rural East Anglia, in order to actually win the next election, at some point David The PR Guru will have to stop blaming Labour and claim some stuff for himself. One wonders if he will run out of time or can he blame labour for the downturn in world economics. Perhaps he can blame the Euro-zone on Labour – well if he lets that particular rabbit off within his party the end result will be a melt down of Chernobyl like proportions. Day before the election – hardly, how will he claim he led the country out of disaster and surely he doesn’t think the British Electorate is as daft as that? Hmm they did almost vote him in didn’t they? It might work David – keep trying !

Oct 14 2011

A Day in the Life…………………………….

So Liam Fox has gone! Inevitable really once his best man and confidante Werrity was acknowledged to have been supported by a private intelligence company and an Israeli philanthropist. I am sure I must be getting paranoid as the word Mossad leapt into my mind; but no – Mossad are very professional, if I imagine that then its too obvious – isn’t it? In any case Dr Fox went some days late. he was a dead duck on Monday and I said on Wednesday that it would be difficult for him to lead a Ministry after this. Still not had any printable feedback from the troops, the view seems to be – just another suit and wonder what kind of fruit-loop we will get next.

Interesting that the Conservative spin machine is stressing that he took the decision himself and that DC has been quick to do the faint-hearted praise and stress the same. It strikes me that there was more to come over the week end and DC decided it was time that Liam took the decision to resign – no greater love hath a man than lay down his career for Davy boy. Strangely I think this will have weakened Cameron as it proved that he failed to take the decisive action he needed to take. All well and good gathering the evidence and having a man innocent until proven guilty. However, in politics, as PM, he needed to be seen to be decisive and given the amount of U turns on policy already shown in this Parliament, it is now getting more and more difficult to identify any form of coherent leadership for many of the initiatives the Tories are pushing. Cameron needed to show he was in charge and his procrastination over Liam Fox writ loud and large that he was not. The question is; was that due to the fact that he blinked (again) or he does not have that amount of support against the right wing of the Party? Either way Ed of the giant forehead has an opportunity both ways to trash him at the next PMQ;s.

While he is at it, he might want to remind DC of the Noel Coward moment – to loose one right wing darling is a pain but will Oliver Letwin follow Foxy? Throwing Cabinet Office and constituency papers into public dustbins in a park like a larcenous postman disposing of evidence is not a recommended action for the man in charge of policy for the Government. In fact to hear him say that it was not a sensible thing to do staggers me. Of course it wasn’t and even if they were just constituency papers it makes future credibility in selling policy to an already doubting electorate just a tad more difficult and convincing his constituency party of his loyalty almost impossible. I wonder if will be a taxi for Mr Letwin next week – the Sun appears to have got its teeth into him as well Ho Hum – a day in the life………………………..

Oct 12 2011

The Wealth of the Country

The dreaded unemployment figures were published today. Davy Boy and Ed had a bit of a roustabout at PMQ’s. The TV hacks and high priced experts, dredged up from wherever, added their take on what this meant. People were quite surprised that young peoples unemployment wasn’t at the million mark. Statistics poured out and were analysed, fondled and demonstrably cherished. Another YTS clone initiative was launched with all the prospects of success of the last one back in the day. The Liam Fox saga briefly intruded on the main stage and in some of the more lurid red tops but a pretty ordinary day for the political movers and shakers of our Island.

It would also be a pretty ordinary day for the any one of the 400,000 long term unemployed as well. No real reason to look for a job when there aren’t any to be had – Hull had 400 odd jobs on offer today and 12000+ people after them. And still the great intellectual behemoth that is Georgie Boys economic strategy ploughs its undisturbed and unwavering course through stormy seas heading inexorably towards the second part of a double dip recession. This master plan called for the deepest and most savage cuts to public services since the Second World War; cuts so sharp and deep even Margaret Thatcher would have baulked from them during her social engineering crusade of the 70’s. This, however, was not the only side of George’s master plan. The large numbers of worthless skivving jobs-worth Public Sector workers were to be instantly swept up by a burgeoning private sector revival that would create jobs at a rate never before achieved, even in times of boom. If I had received such a business plan and strategy I would have pasted it to the back of the toilet door so that visitors to that facility would have some form of light entertainment. This government came to power in the middle of a credit crunch. Despite the protestations that they were clearing up Labours Mess, they ignored the fact that the world was in the middle of a severe recession and that, whilst we might still be the worlds eighth biggest manufacturer, we have very few products that we can export. So we have failed to create the jobs. We have also increased the drain on the public purse because more unemployed means more money spent on benefits and less money coming in on tax. So the gap in our finances is actually getting wider and costing us more because the private sector cannot create the jobs.

17 years ago unemployment was this high and we have two factors which are common with then and now. Both times we had a Tory Government. The one in 1994 was tottering on its last legs but it was there. The second common factor is that the industry necessary to create new products and manufacture them were not there. They had been extinguished by the De-industrialisation of Britain in the 70’s. Partially to strip the unions of the excess of power that they had gained and were abusing and partly to move to the ever so sexy knowledge economy where we would think big thoughts and produce world beating products. In fact we are still suffering from that now, 20 years later. We have had a number of recessions in the last 100 odd years and mainly they have been caused by the Tory obsession with cost cutting and slashing of public sector funding. Market forces do indeed rule the economy, supply and demand must always find their equilibrium point, but if the chancellor and PM have frightened the public witless, with doom and gloom to not win an election and gain power and subsequently blame Labour for every practice under the sun, they cannot now be surprised when people start to hoard their cash for a rainy day. Demand falls – supply cuts back; costs are cut to remain competitive; workers laid off and demand falls even further. All this is secondary school economics – so how come Davey and Georgie boys didn’t work it out. Quite simply it overwhelmed them and they are now stuck in a perpetual loop repeating the famous Thatcher response “There is no alternative”.

They are staring to be rumbled. The main reason why they were not was because normal people would not believe that the strategy was so obviously flawed. Now at the mercy of the winds from the Euro zone all they can do is look into the cameras like a pair of Energiser Bunnies and repeat Plan A. What makes me most angry is the young people’s total. Almost a million young people with no jobs is an indictment that we all stand accused of . Those who get jobs breath a sigh of relief to get a shift in McDonald’s or Burger King Are we going to be a nation of hash slingers on one side and astrophysicists on the other with nothing in-between? All I know is that we are now on the cusp of learning a lesson I learned a long long time ago – Labour may be profligate with the economy but they cant break it as easily and quickly as the Tories. We are now squandering the opportunities to create growth and give that most precious s of commodities to our young people – hope. George – the Wealth of our nation is not the % age of GDP the debt is but the accumulated skills knowledge energy and endeavour of our people. Stop telling people how bad it is and starting giving some stimulus. Labour should be out of sight in any polls by now – but its not. Ed Balls needs to start concentrating on delivering a concise achievable deficit reduction and growth strategy and stop trying to convince people that he is clever.

Oct 11 2011

Trust and Fox

I an disgusted by the evasive writhing of our Secretary of State for Defence over the issues of his travelling arrangements and links to Adam Weritty. His Boss, Davy Boy has failed to give him the ringing endorsement he needed to saunter off into bright sunlit pastures so he remains in purdah for the time being. I am also appalled by the arrogance of the establishment again to demand on absolute documentary proof of any breach of ministerial code before they can take action. The Secretary of State for Defence met John Allen the Commander of CentCom of the US Forces prior to his deployment to Afghanistan as Commander Iforce. His “mate” was with him at that meeting, an informal dinner at a steak house Do the Civil Servants really want me to believe that there were no breeches of OPSEC at all in this meeting? That all that was discussed could have been gleaned from the pages of Telegraph or Guardian? If so then they are backing a loser. Was there anything at this meeting that could not have been shared with a member of the public? If so then it is a clear and flagrant breach of privileged information and as such means that Dr Fox, as he is now being insistent on being called, has been at best cavalier with rules that non elected people have been prosecuted for, or, at worst, ignorant to the implications of his actions – an arrogance only matched by his Boss and the Chancellor.

Taking this to one side, imagine the comments of a Tom on duty in Helmand, returning from a 3 day patrol in bandit country. He has had to endure a pay freeze over the last 2 years, watched as the Government took an axe to his pension, been confronted by the reality of enforced unemployment through non voluntary redundancy even before he gets through the gate so the Taliban can then take their slice of his diminishing supply of good fortune. Now he hears that the Defence Minister ( That’s what they still call them – the guys who carry the rifles) has jetted across the world and met with his best mate almost every week of the year and nobody knows who paid for it. The first words out of his mouth won’t be about the establishment of absolute proof, they will be sharper and more pungent and convey a very simple message – a distinct lack of trust cloaked in as many Anglo Saxon epithets as possible. Once again the Tom will be correct. Who in his right mind would wish to carry on as Secretary of State for Defence without the Trust of his troops. This is not a matter of retaining the Trust of his fellow MP’s , Ministers, PM or the party. This is about accepting the fact that confidence in the boss is paramount and without it the fall in morale of our people in harms way will plummet. Who indeed? Only one of this new breed of politician to whom integrity and honour are mere words in an out of date political text book.

If Liam Fox wishes to retain even the merest shred of credibility then he should be at 10 Downing Street tomorrow morning with a single sheet of paper in his hand – his resignation. He won’t! He will wait until the mandarins have delivered his boss the best possible spin on it and hope to be retained. He knows how loyal his boss is and how good his personal judgements are in these sort of cases. What’s that you say – Andy Coulson – David Laws? But they were essentially good men – David Cameron said so, and David Cameron is an honourable man ( with apologies to Marc Athony)