Dec 12 2011

European Perspectives


Well, since Friday, one could be excused for looking for a very high rooftop and having found one, either, hurl oneself to a soggy end because the UK was to be excluded from all the decision making at the EU and crumble away to the the new Albania or find a soapbox and trumpet the resounding nationalistic anthem of pulling away from Johnny Foreigner and his tricks and coming back home to take charge of our own destiny.  The reason for this was David Cameron chucking his veto at the Merkel inspired rescue plan for tighter fiscal oversight and regulation for Euro zone countries.  Her objective was clear and understood, her method was overly urgent and hence prone to longer term errors.  The French dwarf positively revelled in his put down of the “perfidious” British – a pay back that stretches from Crecy to Normandy and beyond.  It merely illustrated the paucity of intellect and leadership at theElyséePalace, although Cameron’s own response to the snub was hardly a worthy successor to Pitt, in fact as a PR man in what was essentially a PR battle he lost – badly!

The reason why he lost is that it became such a big thing in the UK.  In reality when Merkel announced that this was one of the most important summits of all time for the EU,  the British media misinterpreted her.  In fact, she meant it was vital for Germany and France and the Euro zone countries.  Vital for Britain it was not.  In fact despite Cameron’s assurances, at the dispatch box, this afternoon that he had acted solely in the Country’s best interest, it really didn’t matter one way or the other.  He was never going to get the assurances he said he needed because in the real world he didn’t actually need them.  The City is the largest financial clearing house in the world despite New York’s protestations.  It is the access point to the single biggest market in the world.  Europe is our biggest trading partner and we are the second or third largest economy in the EU ( depending on how you measure it).  Over 70% of inward investment comes in through the City.  And where would BMW, Mercedes Benz, and Siemens etc be without the lucrative deregulated UK market?  After years as a single market, the issue is clear; all of the EU member states are dependant on the others. So the perception of having Britain “bobbing about in mid Atlantic not having influence in the American or European sphere” is for the birds, or the tabloid press.  By simple virtue of its expertise and unique position in the financial markets,London will remain pre-eminent and most Europeans know it.

The great debate revolves around the sceptics in the Tory party and their commitment to pulling back powers from Europe.  Have we lost influence, will the Americans, Japanese, Chinese and Indian investors still love us?  How can we expect there not to be a two speed Europe now? – the dwarf from the Elysée has already trumpeted it from the rooftops in a characteristic display of Gallic arrogance,  it in his speech today.  In fact, the British veto is a sideshow.  The main issue, and the one which still has not satisfied the markets, is saving the Euro and with it the possibility of default on sovereign bonds by a number of big economies.  A simple equation, can the economies involved service the loans all governments take out to keep their countries going?  The degree of credibility on this by investors is measured on the level of yield the investor will demand to lend them money, the higher the yield the more risk of them losing their investment.  In other words, its about risk.

Germany’s yield is around 2% yield and the UK’s is not much worse compared with others paying 5, 6 or even 7% for their money.The greater the yield, the more the government has to pay back.  The more it pays back, the less it has to run its country and help its banks out should they fail. The Angel Angela wants to make sure there is fiscal discipline with automatic fines should targets not be met.  In exchange she will be looking at underwriting some of the guarantee funds the markets will demand to continue operating.  All this is to do with the BIG issue – the world economy and the fears of a second recession..  UK is not involved in the Euro zone and it is only of consequence if it collapses so Cameron will not stop anything except something which will impeded  trade links in the EU – restrictions on the City of London.  This is the crux of the other main point – UK is a member of the single market.  The city is involved in trading, in the single market.  Britain will not pull out of the single market, nor do the Europeans want us to.  Will we lose influence in the single market?  No, because its about business and trade not fiscal controls.

There are two separate but interdependent issues, the future of the Euro and the future of the single market. The second is not in doubt, the first is very much so.  As the rumours seep out of Germany tonight that the German Government is talking to the Commerzbank with a view of shoring it up, it was, and is, right for Angela Merkel to concentrate on that.  Cameron is incidental to this except that he is stuck between a rock and a hard place now with another major split between the coalition parties.  As for Angela, she is fuelled by history,Weimar and the subsequent rise of the right in Germany makes for her desire for a timid European Central Bank, exactly what Europe doesn’t need.  The French leprechaun has his own problems with the peculiar opaque relationship between the French Government and its banks.

It reminds me of Charles Upham who dies in 1994 – for those who don’t know him he was one of those rare breed of people who have won the VC twice.  A New Zealander with all his countries virtues he shunned publicity after the Second World War, farming close to Christchurch.  In a nation like New Zealand the cachet of having 2 VC’s was incredibly powerful but despite successive entreaties by politicians he only spoke out twice – in 1962 and 1971, both times against the European Common Market and he warned that the British way of life would be ruined by the Market because our politicians were dominated by money.  His verdict in 1971 was even more scathing – “They’ll cheat you yet, those Germans”

What price in the days to come the British Commonwealth once more being pushed as an alternative to the Single market  – god help us!

And a good bye and thank you to the great Jonny Wilkinson – the drop goal in the 2003 final ensures you will be immortal

Nov 9 2011

Taxi for Ms May


You would think, after 18 months in government that the Tories would have another song to sing rather than the inheritance they got from Labour.  It is as obvious as the nose on your face that Teresa May is done.  Even the demise of  Liam Fox was not as obvious as this.  The plain and simple truth is Teresa that you are the Colonel of this particular regiment and if one of your company commanders makes a hash of things its usually the Colonel who gets canned.  Why –  because you have the accountability – to Parliament and to the British People.  The old Forces saying, “Big Boys games Big Boys rules”, always applies to ministers – that’s why they are Ministers.  You get to take all the decisions but then have to account for them

May’s sanctimonious slamming of Beverly Hughes, in 2004, after  Hughes attempted to blame civil servants in Sheffield for allowing a backlog of immigrants to build up, resulting in some being admitted to the UK without the correct checks, has been   quickly unearthed and used.    May told Ms Hughes at that time that she was sick and tired of ministers in the Labour government who blamed other people for their mistakes.    That May had the expectation that she should be be treated any way different to Ms Hughes speaks volumes about the arrogance of this coalition.

The missed fact in all this wind and fury is  that if you are in charge as a minister the buck stops on your desk.  The very least Teresa May should have done was to accept that she had failed to supervise her department properly and as a result, whether Brodie Clark had overstepped the mark or not,  the Border Agency failed in its main task – the security of our borders, on her watch! If she had told Parliament that then she might, just might, hope to survive.  But she didn’t, and anything from now on that disproves even the smallest point her statement to the house on Monday and today is now magnified tenfold.

Additionally, she seems to have taken a leaf out of the Ed Balls handbook of personnel practice and castigated Brodie Clerk in public before the outcome of any proper disciplinary process. Any junior manager would have been able to tell her that one is a recipe for an Industrial Tribunal or has she forgotten the name of Sharon Shoesmith?  The question will now be being asked in the corridors of Tory Central office is ” Two mistakes in as many days is this going to be a running sore for us and is she no longer the safe pair of hands that she seemed a month ago”  When you add the Border Agency to the countrywide rioting of the summer and the laughable present concentration on “Gang Culture”, it would seem that in comparison to Liam Fox, Ms May is living a charmed life.

Her tactical ineptitude so far is in sharp contrast to the actions of  Brodie Clerk, who astutely resigned his position and is looking at constructive dismissal.  He can now fight his  corner without hindrance to the disciplinary process of his employers and exercise his right of free speech whenever he wants.  I am certain that there are a few skeletons in his cupboard that Ministers thought they could lock up and now realise he has already left the building with them.

The wider repercussions for the coalition are obvious.  The Euro zone let down is what should be concerning government together with an obvious downward revision of any UK growth figures in Osborne’s Annual Statement.  I always thought it would be the Tories who would break this coalition because of the lightweight nature of their press ganged Lib Dem allies.  I was wrong, there seems to be slightly more bottom about the  Party of Clegg.  That makes me really worried about the Party of Cameron.  Still Taxi’s are allowable as expenses for MP’s so after DC’s resounding backing for the erstwhile Home Secretary, I wonder how long it will be before we get the shout “Taxi for Ms May”

Nov 3 2011

Do we ever learn?


The whirligig in Cannes is better than the final episode of Spooks.  What will happen next ? Does Greece need Harry Pearce and his gang to save them from perdition?  Papandreaou soldiers on carrying burning resentment against Mrs Merkel and Nicholarse.  There have been so many “seminal ” moments so far in the European Debt Crisis that I am giddy with trying to sort out what might happen next.

However, I am puzzled.  I was under the impression that the major cause of the banking crisis in 2008 was caused by greedy and amoral bankers lending to people in a sector of the economy that could not afford to pay back their borrowings and defaulted.  The fact that this lending was mainly in the housing sector is immaterial, the moot point was that, given a reasonable amount of scrutiny, most of the loans should not have been made.  The only way the banks could mitigate their risk was to bundle them up in a modern smoke and mirrors act and flog them on with the net result that the possibility of default was far higher than would have been individually acceptable.  This led to huge short term profit bubbles as Fanny Mae’s and Freddy Mac’s of the American sub prime market fuelled the financial crash.  The history of the world since then is well documented and given time I would suppose even Baldric at the Treasury has now grasped that it wasn’t really Labour who killed the world – rather the opposite.

But here’s the conundrum, the banks almost bankrupted themselves and because  Governments would  not see runs on banks and bank failures with all the attendant misery that would have caused ordinary folk, they bailed out the banks.  We had Lloyd’s and RBS and (almost ) Barclays needing huge Treasury input.   So at the end of that all the governments were broke or in reality having to service a bigger borrowing requirement than they would have had if the banks had not failed.  The banks were bailed out and were undergoing “difficult trading conditions”,   bad enough to start paying big bonuses again though.

Well the banks and the subsequent credit crunch tipped the world into a recession and we all know what happened next.  Consumer confidence went and therefore did demand for goods and services.  Companies responded by cutting costs and therefore margins.  The usual way to cut costs is to cut manpower – thus unemployment rises and this means the governmental benefit bill rises as well.  Company profits dropped and so did purchases so tax income is less.  This is the governments perfect storm and it is forced to borrow more.  This costs more because of the credit crunch and its ability to repay.

So here is my problem, any help these governments get, from the EU or the IMF, is subject to them repaying the loans. So if the whole she-bang was triggered by lending unrealistic amounts of money to individuals in the sub prime market, who they knew would never repay the debt and inevitably, default, how come we are now back into another sub prime market situation only this time in sovereign debts.  Greece is never going to be able to repay the debts, but last week Sarkozy and Merkel were looking more like a couple of bullying mortgage sellers than leaders of a monetary union.  They knew Greece would default or if they didn’t then we really are in trouble.  Then another deal for Italy which by 2020 will still owe 20% more than it earns.  Is there any resonance here.  Are we really proposing to lend people money which their taxpayers are putting into the IMF to bail out countries who have no chance to repay.  On top of this the conditions that the Lenders are demanding these countries fulfil are based simply on cost cutting.  Public sector jobs to go, pensions chopped, pay freezes et al – further unemployment and bigger government borrowing costs – sound familiar?  Yes its the Baldric Strategy as devised by the brains in the Treasury.

Are we really serious in repeating another sub prime mistake – this time at country level?  For what?  So Sarkozy can protect the French banks?  Or because Merkel shares the German reluctance of having anybody else’s control of the German Piggy Bank?   I am secretly sure that Angel Face would love to leave the Euro and revert to the Mark in response to the less pan – European stance of younger German voters.  Whichever way it goes – this will rumble along and postpone any recovery for years if we continue to throw money at the IMF to bail out sub prime countries.  Isn’t it strange that the Big Forehead and Baldric announced today that they are going to up Britain’s contribution to the IMF.  Wonder how he will justify this to the Tory grandees?

Nov 2 2011

My country ….right ..or …wrong…?


I have to admit that some days assaults on Hat Hill are more painful, in aftermath, than others.  Today was one of the more painful ones – the lurking arthritis savaging not only knees but ankles and thumbs as well.  Pity, as it was a glorious  autumn day with a kaleidoscope of colours amongst the trees – native beech, oak and horse chestnut, sprinkled with latter-day firs of a variety of origins, a brisk southerly wind and Mediterranean sunshine – a morning when you just feel lucky to be alive. Spaniel and Border were lustily rampaging amongst the rusting ferns and the remnants of the blackberry bushes lending a joy to the spirit.

Home again and a look at the papers and BBC “all day, every day 24 hour” news filled with Trades Unions trying to make a reasonable point and Government Ministers going through the ritual of hoping against hope that the Trade Unions will have forgotten that if something quacks and waddles with a large brown beak then it probably is the same rehashed deal put on the table.   The pursed faces of (dare you say it because someone did on BBC) Mrs Merkel and the newt faced Sarkozy winding up thier collective electorates before the deciding to mallet Papendreuou was all so predictable.  But the match fixing trial of the Pakistani cricketers has saddened me immeasurably.  Firstly because I love cricket.  I always have, I skivved off school when I was a lad, when we had the only TV in the street and watched the greats – Benaud bowling and batting, Trueman and “George” Statham  the doyens of English fast bowling, and of course the great spinners Johnny Wardle, Jim Laker and Tony Locke.  I got used to climbing out onto the roof to avoid my father on the rare occasions when he returned home for his lunch.  We played cricket incessantly in the school yard and I developed into a useful batsman and not so useful spin bowler.  It was always a joy – the rules were the rules; none of this football stuff and arguing with the ref – moan afterwards about the umpires cataracts or his family history of selective blindness but get on with it.  I even managed to educate intelligent females to the merits of the great game(although a hot summer in Hereford and Botham’s Ashes probably helped).  I even had a match called off because of incoming mortar fire in Cyprus.   The point is I know how much cricket is revered in the sub continent and the players they have produced.  I reckoned if cricket means as much to the population of Pakistan as it means to me then I would be a very unhappy and shamed guy tonight.

A lot of stuff is written about racism and multiculturalism in this country.  The particular slant being from whichever side of the political divide you come from.  Here is a sport that has demonstrably crossed the divide and become truly multi cultural.  And now they cheat at it – for a few tawdry pennies at least 3 young men will never ever play for their country again.  One of them made an impassioned speech of apology to the judge after he pleaded guilty, describing how proud he had been to pull on his Pakistan jersey and how he had wanted to sleep in it.  Just a laddie from a remote village in the Punjab.  But he cheated!  And so did the others – and the ones who were not caught – this time! And  they know the rules!

There have been 14 players caught match fixing or consorting with Bookies since 2000.  3 South Africans, 4 Indians, 1 Kenyan, 1 West Indian and 5 Pakistanis.  And some of those have had their bans overturned in local or district courts.  I have to believe that there is something not quite right there.  It brings the scandal of Bob Woolmers death flooding back and the allegations of ball tampering, while the pervasive odour of bookmakers and fixing lingers everywhere.

I could at this point simply say, as most commentators, that the IOC has a mammoth job to do, bearing in mind this was brought to a head by the News of the Screws. But this is the second reason for my sadness this afternoon, I see a darkness around the Pakistan, with allegations of involvement in Afghanistan against the American led coalition of forces.  The geography of Osama Bin Laden’s apprehension and death can scarcely be a coincidence and  rumours of  government collusion with terrorists in the death of Benazir Bhutto, remind us that Pakistan’s heritage is a bloody one.  The involvement of British born Pakistanis in terrorist attacks in this country and the constant assault on the institutions of the British people are now turning even the most tolerant of Britons into the arms of the fascists.  Our successive governments have allowed this to drift under a banner of multiculturalism.  Well I am a Brit and proud of it and I have to tell you guys in Government that it ain’t working – not one little bit.

It would appear to me that far from being us, the Great Christian Fundamentalist Crusade, that has lost our way,  it is Pakistan desperately searching for its soul.  Cabals within cliques ruled by the need for power or money or some other materialism hold sway over a diaspora that stretches from Islamabad to Bradford  The values of the Islamic religion are being  despoiled and held up for ridicule deliberately by manipulative mendacious people in an attempt to warp  British tolerance, and they are winning.

And in my sadness, there is an anger at the inability of my government and politicians to understand that I simply want to live lawfully under the common law of our country, which has been built up over a thousand years.  Britain is a Christian country which allows universal worship without persecution.  I have no choice in being British – I was born here and so were my ancestors going back to 1215, when they came across from Ireland to Scotland.  I conform to the laws and to the mores of my native land.  Why can’t my Government understand that there is a difference between wanting to live according to my culture and being a racist.  Why does everything that does not smack of even handedness and political correctness have an racist or fascist label slapped on it?  I am neither a racist or fascist but what I want to know is why cannot my Government give me what I want – the confidence to live out the rest of my life knowing that my British culture will be recognised and valued –  that our institutions will be maintained, that we will be free  to parade with our poppy’s without having to run a gauntlet of braying fundamentalists, burning a symbol of our beliefs with impunity.  Those poppy’s remind us of the men who carried rifles to defend the liberties that I would like to uphold.  The sacrifice and the effort they gave, my own family members amongst them, gain them honour.  I carried a rifle for Her Majesty as well and, like most, I believed in what I did when we heard the odd angry shot.  My sadness and anger this afternoon was caused not by some laddies cheating at cricket – it was about the deafening inability  of our elected leaders in both Pakistan and in Britain to call spades spades and understand that despite our differences all we really want is to live in peace and harmony together.

Oct 28 2011

A Plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it………………


Glorious day in Suffolk; warmish and sunny with the wonderful colours of autumn on the trees.  We do live in a very beautiful country. I am lucky living within spitting distance of Knettishall with its country park and walks and  I enjoy the delights of the ascent of Hat Hill and the views along the Ickneild Way.  It also gives me time to regurgitate in my myself what news there is and what the papers have said about all and sundry.  Today I almost thought I had been turned into a pillar of salt at the summit of said hill when I suddenly perceived what exactly David Cameron and George Osborne’s Euro strategy could be.  A plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it…..so cunning that I will now have to refer to one of them or the Plan as the Baldric strategy.

Could it be that from the ashes of the Merkel – Sarco deal and subsequent vanishing act by our two leaders, that a cunning long term strategy has emerged?  Could it be that Geordie is positioning the UK to be one of the so called “second tier” EU members deliberately?  Could he be counting on French and German  hubris to hack off the British people so much that they will welcome his referendum in 3 years time?  Could he, in fact, be looking at making the major issue for the next General Election, the repatriation of powers back to Westminster, thus getting all of UKIP and the BNP vote?  A very useful ploy to take the mind off what will still be a foundering economy and replace it with rampant xenophobia and Brussels bashing.  It would of course be risky.  No way the Lib Dems could live with that one, so any deal, should it be necessary, would be a dead duck and, in fact, probably drive the sandalled ones into the arms of Labour even during the campaign.  He could, however, claim that the Lib Dem Euro preoccupation had stopped growth and that the Tories needed to divest them selves of these damned Liberals to save the country.  During the course of which, he could simply update the election ads –  cross out Labour and blame the Lib Dems, thus saving a fortune in advertising and not having the likes of the unctuous enlisted scum like  Pickles learn a new script (difficult I know).

When you get such a Damascene revelation it is overwhelming.  Not for long;  I realised that no such thoughts could ever materialise inside Baldric or Davey Boys heads.  After almost 18 months they still have not got past blame Labour 101 when the world and its dog, (even some of the Daily Pail readers), recognises that Labour didn’t cause the world financial markets to melt down – more like the bright boys in the American sub prime sector and the supposed even brighter boys in the FSA and the Old Lady.  Besides even if they did manage to get their heads around this, the implementation would likely be so dire it would be rumbled inside half a day by even the dimmest News International phone hacker.  Still it was a pleasant feeling whilst it lasted as we sauntered down the sunlit slope of the hill – this government with a strategy – almost made me nostalgic for Gordon the Bear.

Oct 27 2011

Never mind the Euro feel the width


A painful week in Suffolk.   My old friend the arthritis arrived with a bang (surprise surprise) and provoked a major attack of the grumps.  Not as major as the one which washed over the serried ranks of the Tory and Unionist party at the mere mention of Europe.  The Daily Pail featured a picture of Davy Boy’s greying tonsure on Monday and I have to say that it certainly did look like a self inflicted wound.   Things must be bad around the shires for that amount of energy to be spent on a vote that wasn’t going to be binding, that the other two party’s were going to trash anyway and was doing very little for the Conservatives credibility amongst ordinary punters struggling to make ends meet.  The most oft comment I heard was along the lines of “Daft! Millions on a referendum and we are cutting all sorts of services already”  It might be politic if the Euro-sceptic Tory Grandees understand that their fixation with rolling back Europe is in danger of becoming yet another arrogant illustration of how to lie in the campaign and ignore the electorate afterwards.

DC might have weathered the storm except for the dithering over where he would be for the Heads of State meeting.  His original travel plans got disrupted badly when it was discovered he was not going to attend.  Then he was.  Then, only attending a part of the meeting – he changed his mind more often than a reluctant virgin on a first date.  But again the luck of the Cameron’s came to his rescue with the great drama of the deal in Brussels, with the Iron Madchen playing a hand that will be seen to be a classic in years to come.  TV screens this morning filled with the Blessed Angela and the odious little dwarf Sarko sailing in such close concert they could have been mistaken for an Franco – German catamaran.  And here lies the nub of today’s offering – where was DC?  In the past, it was always either Blair or Brown with the little velvet Angel and Sarko, where were DC and Gorgeous George?  Not centre stage that was certain. the argument could well be that it was Euro stuff so we didn’t need to be there but ” It is in Britain’s national interest to be influencing here” quoted Mr Osborne at the same time as the Tory rags are proclaiming his warning that we need to beware of a two tier Europe with Britain being relegated to the second tier.  He is wrong, with the inability to manage to project any leadership presence at all Cameron and Osborne have singularly managed to ensure that closer fiscal union and cross border legislation will occur in our country sooner rather than later.  The Euro -Zone will plod forward and move inexorably back into rude financial health with no huge Federal State of Europe ever even being discussed, at least not while there is breath in Chancellor Merkels body.  Laura Keunsberg’s blog postulating the future shape of Europe as a council of creditors is likely to be nearer the truth than the scaremongering of UKIP and the Tory Euro – sceptics.  It will never get smaller and we will never renegotiate the Treaty because it would be too economically destructive to mess with our biggest export market.  And when the next Euro vote comes up in the House in the future, Davy Boy will be left to reflect that it is easier to influence and lead when you are engaged fully, like Mrs T, and not left outside waiting for a taxi to nowhere admiring his own reflection in a very small mirror.

Oct 21 2011

Payback


The rise of, the then styled, Colonel Gaddafi(he was only a signals officer, a Captain) in the deposing of King Idris of Libya in 1967 was uniquely swift by the standards of change in the Arab World in the wake of the 1967 Six Day War.  His departure to whatever post life destination he has earned was equally as swift, and surprising.  Few commentators had imagined that he would hide within the tribal heartland of Sirte.  Nobody had envisaged him fighting to almost the last man and the last round in the manner of a true soldier and yet he did.  Was this a last spasm of hubris or a realisation that all he had left was a legacy amongst his own that would best be served with him a martyr?  Whatever the motives of this complex and deranged man, he met his end somewhere outside his home town yesterday morning.  The inquest and speculation as to what exactly are the details of his death will fill the press and conspiracy theorists for many days and weeks.  Already it is mooted that the body was one of his doubles and he is now safe in Niger with a fortune in gold coins – such are the fantasies that become half truths and then accepted wisdom once Hollywood manages to take the story on.  The thing that must not be lost is that Muammar Gaddafi was a taker of lives on an industrial scale.  He exported and financed terrorism across the world for almost 30 years.  As Britain was the last colonial occupier of Libya and a stalwart ally of our cousins across the pond we have borne a major share of the Colonels wrath.

The tracing of his fingers in the pie of death range from the Libyan embassy siege where Yvonne Fletcher was callously murder by a member of the Embassy staff – probably a member of the Military Intelligence Force, the main arm of Libyan Intelligence.  The resulting furore allowed Gadaffi to enhance his credentials with many terrorist organisations around the world and with the Soviet Bloc.  Supply of Semtex from Sovbloc countries to organisations like ETA and PIRA further enhanced his reputation as a supplier of the gears of war to “freedom fighters”   Gaddafi,  however,  strayed across the thin line in 86 when he was implicated in the death of American servicemen in Germany.  The American response was swift and did massive damage to Gaddafi personally,  his family and Tripoli but also to his reputation as an untouchable in the Middle East.  His response to this was to strike at the lesser of the two protagonists in that attack – the UK.  We had allowed our bases in UK to launch the F111’s; a major part of the strike package.  For the next 3 years, Gaddafi proffered oil money around the Middle East in search of a means to strike at UK and US.  His first attempt was in 1986 on a hot sunny Sunday afternoon in the British base of Akrotiri in Cyprus.

Immediately after the Gulf of Sirte incident and the subsequent American attack, Gaddafi offered £5 million to any group that could strike at Anglo US assets in the region.  The deadly linkage between Libya and Syria now started to pan out as he was aided significantly in planning of his attack on Akrotiri by them.  I was  made aware of this as I sat in the command post of 48 Sqn RAF Regiment early one morning having tea and a bacon buttie after an all night patrol.  The electric bullet men, tracked an inbound Syrian Airforce MIG 25 Foxbat recce overflight of the base. I listened as two Rapier Missile launchers locked on visually and with radar and asked over the direct line to CabinetOfficeBRA in London, if they were clear to fire, as their Rules of Engagement were fulfilled. I heard for the third morning running, the voice on the other en, a very senior politician, telling them to hold fire in  calm tones, very much at adds with the single Anglo Saxon epithet  spat by the detachment commander.  This set the seeds of a partnership which, it has always been acknowledged, reached its fruition in the skies above Lockerbie three years later.  Suffice to say in August of that year a cobbled together group of supposed Palestinian Fedayeen attacked Akrotiri using RPG’s mortars, grenades and small arms against families enjoying a warm Sunday by the sea.  Three people were wounded and the terrorists returned to Damascus.   A lot of friends and  families were under those mortars as they landed.  One of them, a gangling laddie of 14 was hosed by a “hero” with an AK47 from a range of less than 15 M.   Almost 50 rounds were fired at him and luckily not a scratch but such was Gaddafi’s legacy.  The Lockerbie atrocity came three years later and then, almost like a little child who knows when they have gone too far, the chameleon like face of Gaddafi turned again to embrace the West and civilisation – or so it would seem.  Little is talked about his involvement in the Chad wars where he did his best to stop peace coming.

So there is a personal element to the sense of payback for me today.  But of all the crimes he was responsible for we must not forget two things, his greatest crime was against the people of Libya of whom he butchered and tortured in their thousands for having the audacity to dream.  That his end came violently, perhaps from close range through the forehead, is of no surprise or sorrow.  The other major point never to forget is that we , in the west, allowed him to prosper, not just by doing nothing but by pursuing policies that impose our will on sovereign nations.  Much of the chaos in the middle east over the last 30 years would never have occurred if the foreign policy of the US had recognised that leadership is not being the worlds policeman and imposing American solutions on nations that were the cradles of civilisation centuries before the first Spaniards set foot in the Americas. We must learn to collaborate and not dictate if we are to solve some of the most intractable security problems of the next decade plus.

Oct 20 2011

Maskirovka


Am I losing my marbles or becoming a totally grumpy old man?  Has no-one else made any comments about the delayed undercover police report?  All attention diverted because of the another guy – not in the terms of reference for the Kennedy case – giving a false name in court under oath thereby skewing the whole weight of evidence – I think not!!!  This seems to be the latest in a series of new tactics which give the semblance of transparency whilst sticking solidly to delivering nothing of substance whatsoever or even postponing it for a better day for the sitting administration.   The Russians are past masters at this stuff even having a military doctrine entitled maskirovka which means keep the patsy’s eyes fixed on the unimportant stuff whilst sneaking the important stuff through unseen

I have no doubt that the inquiry was conducted with integrity and depth and that great tomes will be written on the lessons learnt on police undercover operations.  What I would question is whether or not the report will make any comment at all on the overall management and credibility of the police officers who managed this operation.  7 years this guy was undercover; 7 years of taxpayers money to pay him and his support team; 7 years of opportunity costs to pay for those people who did what he would have done in the active police force – this was a costly operation. The Telegraph estimates around £250000 per annum for just the first two – £1.75m over 7 years.  They also intimate that there were another 15 officers in the same operation.  The National Public Order Intelligence unit must have a fairly substantial budget to be able to deploy resources on such a scale.  As a result the trial collapsed when he swapped sides.   He, by the accounts of the red tops at the time, had a fairly enjoyable time not subject to police disciplines and all those irksome things we find so tiresome – like getting up for work in the morning.  But, I ask you, 7 years infiltrating a climate change group, hardly the main caucus of Al-Qaeda GB was it?.  How on earth did they, or he, manage to con the reviewers into maintaining the operation?  Who made those decisions to carry on or was it just left to drift? Who scrutinises this lot; one would presume it is the Home Secretary?  Has she sacked anybody because a disaster on this scale in military terms would certainly get someone their P45. probably not because that would cost money and in any case it would be easier to blame Labour for something else.

This is the main point of my diatribe this cold but frosty morning in the depths of rural East Anglia, in order to actually win the next election, at some point David The PR Guru will have to stop blaming Labour and claim some stuff for himself.  One wonders if he will run out of time or can he blame labour for the downturn in world economics.  Perhaps he can blame the Euro-zone on Labour – well if he lets that particular rabbit off within his party the end result will be a melt down of Chernobyl like proportions.  Day before the election – hardly, how will he claim he led the country out of disaster and surely he doesn’t think the British Electorate is as daft as that?  Hmm they did almost vote him in didn’t they?  It might work David – keep trying !

Oct 14 2011

A Day in the Life…………………………….


So Liam Fox has gone! Inevitable really once his best man and confidante Werrity was acknowledged to have been supported by a private intelligence company and an Israeli philanthropist.  I am sure I must be getting paranoid as the word Mossad leapt into my mind; but no – Mossad are very professional, if I imagine that then its too obvious – isn’t it?  In any case Dr Fox went some days late.  he was a dead duck on Monday and I said on Wednesday that it would be difficult for him to lead a Ministry after this.  Still not had any printable feedback from the troops, the view seems to be – just another suit and wonder what kind of fruit-loop we will get next.

Interesting that the Conservative spin machine is stressing that he took the decision himself and that DC has been quick to do the faint-hearted praise  and stress the same.  It strikes me that there was more to come over the week end and DC decided it was time that Liam took the decision to resign – no greater love hath a man than lay down his career for Davy boy.  Strangely I think this will have weakened Cameron as it proved that he failed to take the decisive action he needed to take.  All well and good gathering the evidence and having a man innocent until proven guilty.  However, in politics, as PM, he needed to be seen to be decisive and given the amount of U turns on policy already shown in this Parliament, it is now getting more and more difficult to identify any form of coherent  leadership for many of the initiatives the Tories are pushing.  Cameron needed to show he was in charge and his procrastination over Liam Fox writ loud and large that he was not.  The question is; was that due to the fact that he blinked (again) or he does not have that amount of support  against the right wing of the Party?  Either way Ed of the giant forehead has an opportunity both ways to trash him at the next PMQ;s.

While he is at it, he might want to remind DC of the Noel Coward moment – to loose one right wing darling is a pain but will Oliver Letwin follow Foxy?   Throwing Cabinet Office and constituency papers into public dustbins in a park like a larcenous postman disposing of evidence is not a recommended action for the man in charge of policy for the Government.  In fact to hear him say that it was not a sensible thing to do staggers me.  Of course it wasn’t and even if they were just constituency papers it makes future credibility in selling policy to an already doubting electorate just a tad more difficult and convincing his constituency party of his loyalty almost impossible.  I wonder if will be a taxi for Mr Letwin next week – the Sun appears to have got its teeth into him as well Ho Hum – a day in the life………………………..

Oct 12 2011

The Wealth of the Country


The dreaded unemployment figures were published today. Davy Boy and Ed had a bit of a roustabout at PMQ’s.  The TV hacks and high priced experts, dredged up from wherever, added their take on what this meant.  People were quite surprised that young peoples unemployment wasn’t at the million mark.  Statistics poured out and were analysed, fondled and demonstrably cherished.  Another YTS clone initiative was launched with all the prospects of success of the last one back in the day.  The Liam Fox saga briefly intruded on the main stage and in some of the more lurid red tops but a pretty ordinary day for the political movers and shakers of our Island.

It would also be a pretty ordinary day for the any one of the 400,000 long term unemployed as well. No real reason to look for a job when there aren’t any to be had – Hull had 400 odd jobs on offer today and 12000+ people after them.  And still the great intellectual behemoth that is Georgie Boys economic strategy ploughs its undisturbed and unwavering course through stormy seas heading inexorably towards the second part of a double dip recession.  This master plan called for the deepest and most savage cuts to public services since the Second World War; cuts so sharp and deep even Margaret Thatcher would have baulked from them during her social engineering crusade of the 70’s.  This, however, was not the only side of George’s master plan.  The large numbers of worthless skivving jobs-worth Public Sector workers were to be instantly swept up by a burgeoning private sector revival that would create jobs at a rate never before achieved, even in times of boom.  If I had received such a business plan and strategy I would have pasted it to the back of the toilet door so that visitors to that facility would have some form of light entertainment.  This government came to power in the middle of a credit crunch.  Despite the protestations that they were clearing up Labours Mess, they ignored the fact that the world was in the middle of a severe recession and that, whilst we might still be the worlds eighth biggest manufacturer, we have very few products that we can export.  So we have failed to create the jobs.  We have also increased the drain on the public purse because more unemployed means more money spent on benefits and less money coming in on tax. So the gap in our finances is actually getting wider and costing us more because  the private sector cannot create the jobs.

17 years ago unemployment was this high and we have two factors which are common with then and now.  Both times we had a Tory Government.  The one in 1994 was tottering on its last legs but it was there.  The second common factor is that the industry necessary to create new products and manufacture them were not there.  They had been extinguished by the De-industrialisation of Britain in the 70’s.  Partially to strip the unions of the excess  of power that they had gained and were abusing and partly to move to the ever so sexy knowledge economy where we would think big thoughts and produce world beating products.  In fact we are still suffering from that now, 20 years later.  We have had a number of recessions in the last 100 odd years and mainly they have been caused by the Tory obsession with cost cutting and slashing of public sector funding.  Market forces do indeed rule the economy, supply and demand must always find their equilibrium point, but if the chancellor and PM have frightened the public witless, with doom and gloom to not win an election and gain power and subsequently blame Labour for every practice under the sun,  they cannot now be surprised when people start to hoard their cash for a rainy day. Demand falls – supply cuts back;  costs are cut to remain competitive;  workers laid off and demand falls even further.  All this is secondary school economics – so how come Davey and Georgie boys didn’t work it out.  Quite simply it overwhelmed them and they are now stuck in a perpetual loop repeating the famous Thatcher response “There is no alternative”.

They are staring to be rumbled. The main reason why they were not was because normal people would not believe that the strategy was so obviously flawed.  Now at the mercy of the winds from the Euro zone all they can do is look into the cameras like a pair of Energiser Bunnies and repeat Plan A.  What makes me most angry is the young people’s  total.  Almost a million young people with no jobs is an indictment that we all stand accused of .  Those who get jobs breath a sigh of relief to get a shift in McDonald’s or Burger King  Are we going to be a nation of hash slingers on one side and astrophysicists on the other with nothing in-between?    All I know is that we are now on the cusp of learning a lesson I learned a long long time ago – Labour may be profligate with the economy but they cant break it as easily and quickly as the Tories.  We are now squandering the opportunities to create growth and give that most precious s of commodities to our young people – hope.  George – the Wealth of our nation is not the % age of GDP the debt is but the accumulated skills knowledge energy and endeavour of our people.  Stop telling people how bad it is and starting giving some stimulus.  Labour should be out of sight in any polls by now – but its not.  Ed Balls needs to start concentrating on delivering a concise achievable deficit reduction and growth strategy and stop trying to convince people that he is clever.